Issues and Aspects of Development, Growth, Trade and Investment
Edited by Tran Van Hoa
Chapter 11: The Asia recovery: the road and obstacles ahead
Tran Van Hoa In the first half of 2000, there were signs that the Asia recovery had started. This can be seen from a number of general aspects, as judged from various reports and statistics published by the national and international organizations involved in the crisis analysis and management advice. First, further impact and contagion of the crisis in the Asian region had been reportedly arrested. Second, emergency loans earmarked by such institutions as the International Monetary Fund as financial assistance for some crisis economies had been repaid or even not been used owing to improvements in the countries’ budgetary situations. Third, growth and other economic activities, especially exports, in most of the crisis economies in Asia had resumed, albeit at a hesitant pace and much lower rate than that attained by these economies in the three decades or so before July 1997. From other relevant perspectives (such as the social and political situations or even a closer look at economic and financial activities at the sectoral level), however, it would be rather premature to predict that the Asian crisis countries have completely left the turmoil behind and even escaped its long and dark shadow in the months or years to come. There are many reasons for this assessment. First, at the regional level, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) which was set up to promote cooperation among the major central banks around the world reported in July 2000 that, in the first three months of 2000, international bank lending...
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