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Technology and the Future of European Employment

Edited by Pascal Petit and Luc Soete

What is the potential of the new information and communication technologies? This book assesses the relationship between technological change and employment in all its dimensions, focusing on contemporary economies in Europe. The authors discuss patterns of growth, and the type of employment that countries might expect to be created following the introduction of these new technologies.
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Chapter 2: Technology, growth and employment in postwar Europe: short-run dynamics and long-run patterns

G.N. von Tunzelmann and U.D. Efendioglu


G.N. von Tunzelmann and Ü.D. Efendioglu 1. INTRODUCTION The purpose of this contribution to the TSER programme is to present data that we see as relevant to establishing the correlates of technological and growth performance, viewed in a macroeconomic context. The main focus is the dynamic interactions between economic and technological variables, assessed at the macro level. Section 2 of the study draws heavily on previous findings and presents summary graphs of some key trends. Section 3 presents estimates from a set of simple regressions, estimating bivariate relationships in both directions for each country separately, in order to determine leads and lags. Section 4 develops a dynamic analytical framework in which to estimate the interrelationships, while section 5 extends the results relating to technology, investment and growth to employment issues. Some brief conclusions for theory, empirical results and policy are provided at the end of the chapter. The limitation here to macroeconomic performance and to country-wide data should not be taken as implying that we view such an approach as sufficient unto itself. On the contrary – we believe that any such macro perspective needs to be complemented as far as possible by the microfoundations of macroeconomic behaviour, not only at the theoretical but also at the empirical level. The obstacles to presenting cross-country empirical micro data with the degree of diversity of the macro data are, unfortunately, enormous, if not insuperable. In the data presented here we do not descend below the broad sectoral (SIC one-digit) level in terms...

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