A Regional Assessment of Climate Change Impacts
Edited by Robert Mendelsohn
2. Agriculture: Agronomic–economic analysis Richard M. Adams and Bruce A. McCarl INTRODUCTION The economic impact of climate change on agriculture is one of the most important effects identiﬁed in earlier climate change analyses (Adams et al. 1989, 1990, 1999, Reilly et al. 1996). In this chapter, we report regional-level effects of the previously examined uniform climate change assumptions employed in Mendelsohn and Neumann (1999). We also examine additional climate change scenarios, which contain regional differences in temperature and precipitation. The additional scenarios represent possible climate extremes in each region, holding the changes in all other regions constant. This tests the sensitivity of the earlier evaluations to regional climate assumptions. It can also suggest regions that are particularly important to the measurement of national level effects. This analysis is based on the Agricultural Sector Model (ASM), a spatial equilibrium model of the US agricultural sector. The ASM is the basis for many of the national level quantitative estimates of the economic impacts of climate change found in the literature. The focus here is on regional rather than national impacts. To be consistent with the other sectors in this book, the ASM was adapted to report the impacts in the seven regions deﬁned in Table 1.1 in Chapter 1, instead of the 10 regions used in some of the earlier analyses (see Figure 2.1 in Adams et al. 1999). This involved combining the Corn Belt and Great Lakes regions into one region, the Midwest, combining the Northern Great Plains...
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