Uncertainty and the Environment
Show Less

Uncertainty and the Environment

Implications for Decision Making and Environmental Policy

  • New Horizons in Environmental Economics series

Richard Young

This thought provoking book is concerned with the need to deal adequately with uncertainty in environmental decision making. The author advances a critique of the use of traditional models and then develops an alternative model of decision making under uncertainty, based on the work of George Shackle.
Buy Book in Print
Show Summary Details

Chapter 8: Results of the Application of the Shackle Model

Richard Young

Extract

8. Results of the application of the Shackle model 8.1 INTRODUCTION This chapter presents evidence of whether the behaviour of the individuals interviewed is consistent with the key propositions of the model. These propositions centre on the evaluation of the outcomes in terms of degree of potential surprise as well as the existence of an ascendancy function. In terms of potential surprise the specific assumptions on which evidence is provided include: that potential surprise reflects the belief that the individual has in the occurrence of the outcome; the extent to which any of the axioms for potential surprise (as described in Section 5.4.1.1) are supported; and whether potential surprise was treated as a continuous or binary measure of uncertainty. In terms of the existence of the ascendancy function, evidence is provided on: the consistency of the coefficients of the potential surprise and outcome variables with that of theory; the overall explanatory power of the ascendancy function; the difference between the ascendancy/weighting function over gains and losses; the difference of the coefficients between the individuals; the significance of the potential surprise and outcome variable; and the role of the ascendancy function as a sifting device by means of which the individual decision maker focuses on one gain and one loss outcome respectively. In Section 8.3 the Shackle model is then applied at a more general level in an attempt to explain the way that uncertainty is evaluated in institutions such as the Inter-American Development Bank and...

You are not authenticated to view the full text of this chapter or article.

Elgaronline requires a subscription or purchase to access the full text of books or journals. Please login through your library system or with your personal username and password on the homepage.

Non-subscribers can freely search the site, view abstracts/ extracts and download selected front matter and introductory chapters for personal use.

Your library may not have purchased all subject areas. If you are authenticated and think you should have access to this title, please contact your librarian.


Further information

or login to access all content.