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Uncertainty and the Environment

Implications for Decision Making and Environmental Policy

Richard Young

This thought provoking book is concerned with the need to deal adequately with uncertainty in environmental decision making. The author advances a critique of the use of traditional models and then develops an alternative model of decision making under uncertainty, based on the work of George Shackle.
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Appendix 1: Questionnaire

Richard Young


Introduction to the work: Thank you for your time today. The research I am conducting aims to investigate the way that uncertainty about the environmental consequences of development projects is dealt with in the decision-making process. I am also assessing the use of an alternative decision-making framework for evaluating uncertainty. I would like to emphasize that the research does not seek to evaluate the Southern Highway but is restricted to a analysis of the decision-making process. The research is independently funded. I would like to record this interview, if you don’t object. If you want me to stop recording at any point please say. Q1. Q2. Can I ask you first of all to briefly outline your position, and your responsibilities? Can you describe briefly your role in the evaluation of the Southern Highway rehabilitation project and the stages in the project that you have been involved in? Can you indicate if there are any direct or indirect effects of the project on the environment to which you or the GoBl/IDB in general felt there is a degree of uncertainty surrounding the occurrence and the possible implications of those effects? If so what are these effects and can you indicate what you think are the main sources of the uncertainty surrounding them? Could you tell me if any informal or formal approaches were used to assess any uncertainties that were identified and if there were any attempts made to quantify the uncertainties involved or evaluate their relative...

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