Essays in Honour of Karl-Göran Mäler
- New Horizons in Environmental Economics series
Edited by Bengt Kriström, Partha Dasgupta and Karl-Gustaf Löfgren
Chapter 7: A Model of Fertility Transition
7. A model of fertility transition Partha Dasgupta 1 INTRODUCTION In order to understand fertility behaviour, economic demographers have presumed that parents regard children as both ends and means. Children are ends in all cultures: we are genetically endowed to want and to value them. Viewing them as ends ranges from the desire to have offspring because they are playful and enjoyable, to a desire to obey the dictates of tradition and religion. One such injunction emanates from the cult of the ancestor, which, taking religion to be the act of reproducing the lineage, requires women to have many children. And there are many more such injunctions in various cultures. But children can also be a means to economic betterment. In the extreme, they can be a means to survival. Children offer two such means. First, in the absence of capital markets and social security, children can be a source of private security in old age. There is evidence that in poor countries children do offer such security.1 It leads to a preference for male offspring if males inherit the bulk of their parents’ property and are expected to look after them in their old age. Second, in agriculture-based economies children are valuable in household production. Evidence of this also is extensive.2 Caldwell (1981, 1982) put forward the interesting hypothesis that the intergenerational transfer of resources is from children to their parents in societies experiencing high fertility and high mortality rates, but that it is from parents to their children...
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