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Forecasting Labour Markets in OECD Countries

Measuring and Tackling Mismatches

Edited by Michael Neugart and Klaus Schömann

This book offers a wide-ranging overview of the state of labour market forecasting in selected OECD countries. Besides presenting forecasting models, the contributions provide an introduction to past experiences of forecasting, highlight the requirements for building appropriate data sets and present the most up-to-date forecasts available.
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Chapter 8: French Occupational Outlooks by 2010: A Quantitative Approach Based on the FLIP-FAP Model

Agnes Topiol


8. French occupational outlooks by 2010: a quantitative approach based on the FLIP-FAP model Agnes Topiol 1 INTRODUCTION The Statistical and Economic Research Department of the French Ministry of Employment and Solidarity has prepared outlooks for the French economy for the Commissariat General au Plan under the Occupation and Qualification Projection group (PMQ, The main objective is to anticipate labour market trends and, more specifically, occupational employment over the next ten years. In carrying out this task, we must keep in mind that making projections is not an exact science and that the main purpose of such an exercise is to shed light on occupational changes in the labour market over the next ten years, taking into account past trends in employment, economic growth and changes in the labour force. Our quantitative approach relies on an econometric estimation of occupational labour demand equations using two major sources: French labour force surveys and French national accounts over the period 1983–2000. Development of these projections begins with a macroeconomic projection of the French economy over the period 2000–2010, which is made using the macro-sector model HERMES. Employment projections are undertaken for 75 specific occupations and 22 broad occupational groups. Over the next ten years, output growth is projected to grow at a rate of 3 per cent per year. This growth rate was achieved a year ago, in the context of France’s strong economic recovery. However, uncertainties about output and employment growth are now increasing; as...

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