Essays in Honour of Peter Lloyd, Volume I
Edited by Sisira Jayasuriya
Chapter 10: Explaining a dynamic CGE simulation with a trade-focused back-of-the-envelope analysis: the effects of eCommerce on Australia
10. Explaining a dynamic CGE simulation with a trade-focused back-of-the-envelope analysis: the eﬀects of eCommerce on Australia Peter B. Dixon and Maureen T. Rimmer* 1. INTRODUCTION This chapter was written in honour of Peter Lloyd for presentation on the occasion of his retirement. Together with Arndt, Corden, Gregory, Hazari, Kemp, Salter, Snape, Swan and Woodland, Lloyd is in a select group of economists that have made Australia a leading contributor over the last half century to the development and application of the theory of international trade.1 Reﬂecting the pre-eminence of its trade theorists, Australia’s applied multi-sectoral modellers have also emphasized trade issues. The ﬁrst multisectoral model for Australia was the path-breaking work of Evans (1972). The Evans model was devoted almost entirely to the analysis of the eﬀects of changes in tariﬀs. Similarly, protection was the primary focus of Klijn’s (1974) model and of the ORANI model (Dixon et al., 1977 and 1982). While the MONASH model (Dixon and Rimmer, 2002) has a broader range of applications than its predecessors, it retains a strong trade focus. As measured by the share of trade in its GDP, Australia is not among the world’s most trade-oriented nations. This makes the dominance of trade analysis in the work of Australia’s theoretical and applied economists somewhat of a surprise. Nevertheless, the concentration on trade has been well justiﬁed. Over many decades Lloyd and Australia’s other leading trade economists, supported by multi-sectoral modellers, have demonstrated the importance to Australia’s economic...
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