Essays in Honour of Peter Lloyd, Volume II
Edited by Sisira Jayasuriya
Chapter 7: ANZUS free trade agreements: results from a global model
Niven Winchester and Martin Richardson* INTRODUCTION When President George W. Bush received ‘fast-track’ trade promotion authority (TPA) in 2002 that, in essence, gives him much greater power to pursue trade negotiations, many economists looked with interest to see where this power would be applied. One optimistic perspective on recent US trade policy is that TPA was purchased at the considerable cost of US steel tariﬀs and the bloated Farm Bill – necessary quos for the quid of domestic political support for TPA – so it must be highly valued by the Bush administration and therefore would be used extensively and wisely to promote trade agreements. The particular hope of many economists was that it would signal a renewed US commitment to multilateralism and decreased emphasis on preferential trading deals. This was especially the hope in New Zealand (NZ), an exporter of products in the world’s most protected sector, agriculture, and a miniscule one at that, with little power in bilateral settings. While it is perhaps too early to assess the US commitment to multilateralism – a less optimistic view of the steel tariﬀs and Farm Bill is that they represent a total capitulation of US international economic interests to domestic political interests – it does seem that the TPA has triggered a rash of negotiations for bilateral preferential trading arrangements. So the USA is in the f nal stages of preparing a deal with Singapore, another with ﬁ Chile is the f rst of a planned series of dominoes in South America. The...
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