Chapter 5: Polycentricity Reduces Vulnerability
MAKING PROSPECTIVE TARGETS SAFER A system composed of many diﬀerent centres is more stable due to its variety, which enables parts to substitute for each other. When one part of the system is negatively aﬀected, one or several other parts can take over. Polycentricity is eﬀective in reducing risk and uncertainty. It corresponds to the old saying that it is wise ‘not to put all your eggs in one basket’. This basic insight from the ﬁeld of socio-biology also applies to terrorism. A target’s vulnerability is lower in a society composed of many centres than it is in a centralised society. The more centres of power there are in a country, the less terrorists are able to harm it. In a decentralised system, terrorists do not know where to strike, because they are aware that each part can substitute for the other, so that a strike is not likely to achieve much. Polycentricity thus reduces both the probability of terrorists launching an attack and the damage caused in case of an attack. For these two reasons, terrorists have a lower incentive to attack decentralised rather than centralised societies. In terms of the ﬁgures presented in the previous chapter, the marginal beneﬁt curve from the point of view of the terrorists shifts downwards, resulting in a lower equilibrium extent of terrorist activity (see Figure 4.6). In contrast, in a centralised system, most decision-making power with respect to the economy, polity and society takes place in one location....
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