Identifying Possibilities Using Long-Term Energy Scenarios
Chapter 3: Energy–Economy–Environment Scenarios at IIASA-ECS
In this chapter we describe general characteristics of energy–economy– environment scenarios. We characterize three groups of scenarios (highimpact, mitigation and sustainable-development). We then characterize SD scenarios in more detail by comparing ranges of key variables (driving forces and results) of SD scenarios with ranges of the same variables chosen from the IPCC-SRES database of scenarios. 3.1 A COMPREHENSIVE COLLECTION OF ENERGY–ECONOMY–ENVIRONMENT SCENARIOS Soon after the emergence of the ﬁrst global long-term energy scenarios, eﬀorts were initiated to compare the results of such scenarios and to learn from their diﬀerences. Examples of these eﬀorts include the Energy Modelling Forum,1 founded in 1976, and the International Energy Workshop, founded in 1981 (Schrattenholzer, 1999). In the course of time, energy scenarios more and more gave way to E3 scenarios, and the eﬀorts to compare their results and to compile them in one place were ever increasing. One of the latest results in this respect is the database established during the work on IPCC’s Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (Nakic enovic and Swart, 2000). This database is therefore also known as ´ ´ the SRES database (Morita and Lee, 1998). It includes the results of some 400 E3 scenarios, which are described in terms of the most important variables characterizing the long-term development of the E3 system either globally or for major world regions. These variables include population, economic growth, energy demand, carbon emissions and others. Although not all scenarios in the database report on all variables,...
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