Achieving a Sustainable Global Energy System
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Achieving a Sustainable Global Energy System

Identifying Possibilities Using Long-Term Energy Scenarios

Leo Schrattenholzer, Asami Miketa, Keywan Riahi and Richard Alexander Roehrl

Sustainable development and global climate change have figured prominently in scientific analysis and international policymaking since the early 1990s. This book formulates technology strategies that will lead to environmentally sustainable energy systems, based on an analysis of global climate change issues using the concept of sustainable development. The authors focus on environmentally compatible, long-term technology developments within the global energy system, while also considering aspects of economic and social sustainability.
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Chapter 3: Energy–Economy–Environment Scenarios at IIASA-ECS

Leo Schrattenholzer, Asami Miketa, Keywan Riahi and Richard Alexander Roehrl


In this chapter we describe general characteristics of energy–economy– environment scenarios. We characterize three groups of scenarios (highimpact, mitigation and sustainable-development). We then characterize SD scenarios in more detail by comparing ranges of key variables (driving forces and results) of SD scenarios with ranges of the same variables chosen from the IPCC-SRES database of scenarios. 3.1 A COMPREHENSIVE COLLECTION OF ENERGY–ECONOMY–ENVIRONMENT SCENARIOS Soon after the emergence of the first global long-term energy scenarios, efforts were initiated to compare the results of such scenarios and to learn from their differences. Examples of these efforts include the Energy Modelling Forum,1 founded in 1976, and the International Energy Workshop, founded in 1981 (Schrattenholzer, 1999). In the course of time, energy scenarios more and more gave way to E3 scenarios, and the efforts to compare their results and to compile them in one place were ever increasing. One of the latest results in this respect is the database established during the work on IPCC’s Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (Nakic enovic and Swart, 2000). This database is therefore also known as ´ ´ the SRES database (Morita and Lee, 1998). It includes the results of some 400 E3 scenarios, which are described in terms of the most important variables characterizing the long-term development of the E3 system either globally or for major world regions. These variables include population, economic growth, energy demand, carbon emissions and others. Although not all scenarios in the database report on all variables,...

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