Measuring Inclusion and Diffusion in Europe
Edited by Paolo Guerrieri and Sara Bentivegna
Chapter 7: The impact of e-inclusion in Europe: a scenario analysis
7. The impact of e-inclusion in Europe: a scenario analysis 7.1 THE CRITERIA FOR MODEL SELECTION Differently from the econometric analyses carried out in the previous chapter, the methodology followed in this chapter consists in simulating (rather than estimating) the economic impact of e-inclusion policies by constructing several scenarios. The simulation exercises carried out are just examples of a larger set of possible analyses to be conducted with International Futures (IFs) and possibly other computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The most difficult task is to carry out the simulations with the aim of disentangling the different effects of the various dimensions of e-inclusion identified in this research (infrastructure, usage and impact, or empowerment) since in simulation exercises we cannot directly use the data and indicators presented in the first part of this book and used in the econometric analysis carried out in the previous chapter. The strategy that we follow is therefore different and is based on the choice of the parameters to modify in order to put into action the different dimensions of e-inclusion that emerged in the previous chapters. The key issues are related to the choice – and the motivation behind it – of parameters and their inclusion in one of three dimensions of e-inclusion. Based on this choice, simulations will be structured into three steps aiming to disentangle the effects of: (a) higher infrastructure of e-inclusion, (b) higher infrastructure and usage of e-inclusion; and (c) higher infrastructure, usage and impact of e-inclusion. Simulations include two sets of scenario...
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