Catching-up Strategies in CESEE Economies
Edited by Ewald Nowotny, Peter Mooslechner and Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald
Chapter 4: Catching-up Prospects After the Crisis for the EU’s CESEE Region
4. Catching-up prospects after the crisis for the EU’s CESEE region Kieran Mc Morrow and Werner Röger1 The CESEE region,2 as well as the EU-27 as a whole, has been deeply affected by the global economic and financial crisis that erupted in 2008. In the wake of the crisis, policy makers are asking whether the CESEE growth model will have to be fundamentally adapted to address the inadequacies which have emerged. This chapter tries to provide some answers to these questions by assessing the growth and catching-up performance of CESEE as a whole, as well as its individual members, in the ten years leading up to the crisis and comparing this with the likely growth trajectory for these countries over the coming decade up to 2020. The chapter is structured as follows: Section 1 provides a short overview of the type of factors to be considered when thinking about the medium- to long-term growth and catching-up prospects of a region such as CESEE. Section 2 assesses the degree of convergence achieved in the ten-year period leading up to the crisis, with Sections 3 and 4 looking at the impact of the financial crisis on the underlying growth capacity of the CESEE region as well as providing an assessment of post-crisis prospects up to 2020. Finally, Section 5 gives some concluding remarks. 1 SOME RESULTS FROM THE CONVERGENCE LITERATURE Various theories exist concerning the speed with which less developed economies develop over time, and whether, or when, they converge...
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