Spatial Scenarios in a Global Perspective
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Spatial Scenarios in a Global Perspective

Europe and the Latin Arc Countries

Edited by Roberto Camagni and Roberta Capello

This up-to-date and insightful book presents post-crisis scenarios for European regions with new methodologies and tools to support quantitative assessment and foresight. The aim is to develop regional forecasting methodologies and tools, appropriate to the regional-local scale but consistent with a general EU-wide approach. This effort is particularly important in a period of economic crisis, as an economic downturn generates high uncertainty about the future of economic systems, and consequently will determine the new winners and losers in a globalized world.
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Chapter 1: Building Local After-crisis Scenarios in a Global Perspective

Roberto Camagni and Roberta Capello


Roberto Camagni and Roberta Capello 1.1 THE REASONS FOR A LOCAL AFTER-CRISIS SCENARIO EXERCISE Far-seeing economic scenario building and forecasting have always been important exercises to guide policy makers in the construction of anticipatory policies. Such exercises become all the more important in a period of severe economic downturns, in which different reactions by economic systems to turbulence give rise to completely different economic scenarios, each requiring different policy interventions at all territorial levels. The difficulty and responsibility of choosing development policies becomes more complicated at local level. While – as today widely accepted by the most advanced literature on the subject – long-term development is largely a supply-side phenomenon based on general rules and institutional frames, but above all nourished by the internal entrepreneurial capabilities of regions and places and by the local capacity to exploit existing resources efficiently, local policies require detailed knowledge of local resources and potentials. In fact, the possibility for any region to contribute to the general EU growth strategy depends on the creative exploitation of its own assets of territorial capital; their preservation, completion and enrichment by setting appropriate priorities to local and regional policies; and the ‘tapping’ and mobilization of previously ‘untapped’ resources. If this endeavour is already somewhat complicated, it becomes even more difficult in periods of economic crisis, when structural, long-term and supply policies have to cope and integrate with short-term, demand policies, and when an overall scarcity of public resources must be complemented by private resources. Achievement of the necessary goals of...

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