Europe and the Latin Arc Countries
Edited by Roberto Camagni and Roberta Capello
Chapter 3: Integrated Scenarios for European Regions
Roberto Camagni, Roberta Capello and Jacques Robert 3.1 FROM THEMATIC TO INTEGRATED SCENARIOS In the previous chapter thematic scenarios were presented with regard to the individual main driving forces of change. The more difficult task to accomplish now is implementation of truly integrated scenarios, considering all the possible feedback effects among the different driving forces and defining the main potential bifurcation points in the likely trajectory of the European territory. The complexity of this task resides in two distinct aspects. The first is a methodological one. Building general, integrated scenarios means, on the one hand, moving beyond a single-dimensional logic similar to the one used in the previous chapter, where the effects of individual driving forces or the evolutions of specific fields were inspected (as in the case of a transport scenario, or a demographic scenario). The different trajectories must be related to each other, and cross-feedback effects must be underlined. On the other hand it requires assuming an ‘if . . . then’ logic, keeping assumptions carefully separate from effects, and hypotheses on the appearance of certain conditions distinct from results. In this sense, we do not construct ‘good versus bad’ scenarios, but rather ‘conditional’ scenarios based on assumptions concerning some crucial, difficult to forecast, general preconditions usually generating a discontinuity or a bifurcation in the trajectory of the system inspected. The difficulty consists precisely in maintaining a strong internal logic in the construction of these conditional scenarios, starting from a clear definition of assumptions and consistently deriving the results. Moreover, the...
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