Spatial Scenarios in a Global Perspective
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Spatial Scenarios in a Global Perspective

Europe and the Latin Arc Countries

Edited by Roberto Camagni and Roberta Capello

This up-to-date and insightful book presents post-crisis scenarios for European regions with new methodologies and tools to support quantitative assessment and foresight. The aim is to develop regional forecasting methodologies and tools, appropriate to the regional-local scale but consistent with a general EU-wide approach. This effort is particularly important in a period of economic crisis, as an economic downturn generates high uncertainty about the future of economic systems, and consequently will determine the new winners and losers in a globalized world.
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Chapter 6: Quantitative Foresights at Sub-regional Level: Assumptions and Simulation Results

Antonio Affuso and Ugo Fratesi


6. Quantitative foresights at subregional level: assumptions and simulation results Antonio Affuso and Ugo Fratesi 6.1 INTRODUCTION The previous chapter estimated an econometric model for the GDP growth rate of all provinces (NUTS-3) of three countries of the European Union: France, Italy and Spain. This model, MAN-3, is especially helpful in the development of scenarios at provincial level, as will be shown in this chapter. In particular, the MAN-3 model can be used to obtain much finer scenarios at a territorial level than that of Chapter 4. In fact, while MASST has 265 European NUTS-2 regions, MAN-3 has only 232 NUTS-3 provinces belonging to the three countries, which have in total just 60 NUTS-2 regions. The level of spatial disaggregation is hence about four times finer and allows the production of results that are better able to take account of territorial specificities. As mentioned in Chapter 5, however, the MAN-3 model is purely distributive, while the MASST2 is distributive and generative at the same time. This is due to the fact that provinces are too small to contain internally all of the assets needed to enable endogenous growth, and for this reason they rely much more closely on interaction with each other. Hence, growth must be determined at a higher, regional, level, rather than at provincial level. Provinces, however, also compete with each other to appropriate parts of growth that are generated by all of them together. This requires the close integration of the MASST and MAN-3 models in the...

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