Applying Stated Preferences in the Presence of Uncertainty
3. Uncertainty and stated preference techniques in practice 3.1 INTRODUCTION The previous chapters described the background to this book and outlined the concepts relevant to its objectives. This chapter presents a review of the SP literature. The next section summarizes the SP studies that have valued climate change mitigation. Section 3.3 discusses the SP studies that are not about climate change mitigation but have accounted for environmental risk and uncertainty in the valuation exercise. A summary of the SP literature relating to the current progress in accounting for preference uncertainty is presented in Section 3.4; Section 3.5 concludes. 3.2 CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SP LITERATURE A number of CV studies have addressed the issue of welfare gain from various climate change policy interventions (e.g. Berk and Fovell, 1999; Berrens et al., 2004; Cameron, 2005a; Viscusi and Zeckhauser, 2006; Lee and Cameron, 2008). Berk and Fovell’s (1999) study is one of the first CV studies attempting to estimate the welfare gain associated with climate change mitigation. In a public survey of Los Angeles area residents, they presented respondents with eight different climate change scenarios (four summers and four winters). The summer scenarios included combinations of a possible increase (decrease) in summer mean daily maximum temperature and a change in the likelihood of hot (cold) spells. The winter scenarios presented combinations of temperature (higher/lower) and precipitation (wetter/drier) changes. Respondents were asked for their WTP to prevent that climate scenario from materializing. The findings suggested that respondents’ WTP was influenced primarily by increases...
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