Paradoxes of the Present, Prospects for the Future
Chapter 10: Implications for Policy
10.1 INTRODUCTION This final chapter connects what has been discussed in Chapter 9 to two policy arenas – the national and the international. It begins by classifying the migration outcomes outlined there using the distinction between (1) outcomes that were expected to be relatively slow, and unforced, involving gradual shifts in population, which we shall call ‘mobility’; and (2) outcomes that were expected to be rapid, sudden and typically forced or at least occurred as a matter of last resort, which we shall call ‘displacement’. Each of these will then be sub-divided on the basis of whether the policy challenges are thought to be primarily technical/managerial or primarily political. 10.2 MOBILITY THAT POSES ‘TECHNICAL’ OR MANAGERIAL CHALLENGES The research and reasoning used in Chapter 9 above produced no strong expectations that environmental change would result in major shifts in the distribution of the UK population by means of ‘routine’ mobility. Migration patterns will evolve, but the driving forces will, almost totally, be economic, social and political, not environmental. The minor exceptions are: ● ● ● Small-scale migrations associated with shifts in agriculture, forestry and fishing that might reflect adjustments to dry summers, higher temperatures and the availability of irrigation (Section 9.2). Local migrations associated with the avoidance of flood risk from both rivers and sea (9.3 and 9.6). This would mostly affect flood plains of the major UK rivers and low-lying land in eastern coastal districts. Some abandonment of individual dwellings (for example, on east coast cliff tops) and small settlements located in areas...
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