Choice Modelling
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Choice Modelling

The State of the Art and the State of Practice

Edited by Stephane Hess and Andrew Daly

Choice modelling has been one of the most active fields in economics over recent years. This valuable new book contains leading contributions from academics and practitioners from across the different areas of study where choice modelling is a key analytical technique, drawn from a recent international conference.
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Chapter 12: Trivariate probit models of pre-purchase/purchase shopping channel choice: clothing purchases in Northern California

The State of the Art and the State of Practice

Patricia L. Mokhtarian and Wei (Laura) Tang


Since becoming a reality in the late 1990s, online shopping has shown sturdy growth. Internet-based retail sales in the US constituted 1.1 percent of total retail sales in 2001 and 2.1 percent in 2004. By 2010, online retail, at $167 billion, accounted for 4.3 percent of total retail sales.1 Predictions are that online retail sales (excluding travel) will rise to $334.7 billion in 2012.2 Online purchases of the products of particular interest to the present study are also increasing. Specifically, the percentage of retail spending on apparel, accessories, footwear, and jewelry that occurred online jumped from 1.6 percent in 2001 to 8.4 percent in 2007.3 Compared to traditional store shopping, the steadily rising trend of online retail sales and the confident predictions of how intensively online shopping (or e-shopping) will be adopted in the future make it increasingly important to understand more about the circumstances under which it is adopted, and its potential impacts on other activities, such as travel. Accordingly, there is considerable interest, within the retail industry and among researchers in marketing and transportation, in better understanding the nature of online shopping adoption, particularly in relationship to the traditional channels of store and catalog.

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