Chapter 9: Underpinnings for scenarios
Since the future is shrouded in uncertainty, the best one can do in considering future developments is to rely on past trends and patterns and think in terms of their relevance in years to come. We should also think about probable discontinuities. However, quite a few of them emerge from some earlier-noted components of the said trends and patterns, which, for some reason, increased rapidly in importance, undermining or even reversing an earlier dominant larger trend or pattern. The foregoing type of thinking may additionally be supported by records of some earlier intellectual ventures that tried to look into the future. I have a certain advantage in taking such a common-sense approach. For I have already tried such a venture a quarter of a century ago. In Economic Prospects: East and West, I tried not only to present the underpinnings of what had been taking place on both sides of the cold war fault-line, but also formulated some opinions about future developments.
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