A postscript: back to the future
What futures (in the plural because more than one scenario is envisaged) emerge for the West from considerations in the preceding nine chapters? As in my earlier futurological venture, more than one scenario looks probable. Such an assessment should not come as a surprise. The world today is more complex than it was in the 1980s. Thus it is multipolar rather than bipolar as it was at that time. Moreover, new global challenges – spurious, but perceived as real (and it is perceptions that matter!) – seem to shape the thinking of large segments of Western elites. Even more unfortunately they have shaped the actions of governments since at least the late 1990s. Again, in a more complex world, no scenario considered by me enjoys – in my own rough assessment – a probability higher than 50 percent. This means that the future, limited to this and the next decade, is a nearly open-ended one, within a certain range, though.
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