Issues, Challenges and National Policies
Edited by Khalid Bichou, Joseph S. Szyliowicz and Luca Zamparini
The motivation for researching maritime terrorism came from Dr Talas's PhD thesis, which was mainly concerned with maritime port security efficiency modelling. One of the key elements of the research was collecting data from specialist terrorism underwriters at Lloyd's of London on the likelihood of the occurrence of certain prescribed types of terrorist attack on a maritime port facility. As part of the literature review for the PhD thesis, data on terrorist attacks against ports and against shipping in ports were collected from RAND Corporation and analysed. It was in the analysis of the data that the pattern of terrorist attacks began to emerge and thus Gleason's (1980) and Jenkins et al.'s (1983) method of modelling (general) terrorism risk using the Poisson distribution and the application of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test on the data from the RAND database of worldwide maritime terrorist attacks from 1968 to 2007 was repeated. The importance of the research is in the validation of the actual terrorism insurance prices quoted by terrorism underwriters when compared with the theoretical predictor of the likelihood of a terrorist attack against ports and against shipping in ports using empirical data and the Poisson distribution. In the chapter we propose new definitions of port security risk. The port security risk model is described, which is based on Talas and Menachof (2009) and Willis et al. (2005).
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