Innovation under Uncertainty
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Innovation under Uncertainty

The Future of Carbon-free Energy Technologies

Edited by Valentina Bosetti and Michela Catenacci

Innovation under Uncertainty presents original research and insights on innovation in carbon-free energy technologies. Valentina Bosetti and Michela Catenacci provide a complete and informative assessment of the current potentials and limits and offer a detailed analysis of what could, or should, be the drivers to support their success and large-scale diffusion. The results provided in this book offer important and concrete insights and recommendations concerning the development and the deployment of more efficient generation technologies, the demand for which will undoubtedly increase alongside the growing concern for environmental issues and global warming.
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Chapter 6: Going Electric: Expert Survey on the Future of Battery Technologies for Electric Vehicles

Michela Catenacci, Giulia Fiorese, Elena Verdolini and Valentina Bosetti


The transport sector is a key contributor to both greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) and local pollution. The IEA (2012) estimates that 20 percent of global primary energy use and 25 percent of energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are attributable to this sector alone. If current trends persist, global energy demand for transport and energy related CO2 emissions are expected to double by 2050.1 The increasing concerns on rising GHG emissions and security of oil supply make the development of low-carbon and carbon-free technologies for transportation a high priority for policy makers around the world (IEA, 2012).2 The main challenge ahead lies in lowering the costs of currently available alternative transport technologies. Two main options are under consideration in the public and private realm. First, there is widespread interest in the development of cost-competitive second and third generation biofuels as alternative energy carriers. Second, much attention is focused on the potential diffusion of Electric Drive Vehicles (EVs) both for private and commercial transport (EC, 2011). This chapter describes the results of a survey involving 15 experts on batteries for EVs from different European countries. The aim of the survey was to gather experts’ assessments of the current technical state of batteries for fully electric vehicles (Battery Electric Vehicles or BEVs) and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs),3 on their future costs and on the impact of public support programs in the form of research, development and demonstration (RD & D) investment. We also collected probabilistic estimates of their widespread diffusion in the light duty vehicles (LDV) market.

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