A New Model for Balanced Growth and Convergence
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A New Model for Balanced Growth and Convergence

Achieving Economic Sustainability in CESEE Countries

Edited by Ewald Nowotny, Peter Mooslechner and Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald

This topical book addresses the need for emerging economies in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe to find a new, sustainable growth model that fosters continued convergence with the EU without leading to the build-up of new vulnerabilities.
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Chapter 8: Russia in 2012: the challenge of reforming the economy without a political reform

Achieving Economic Sustainability in CESEE Countries

Konstantin Sonin


The intention behind this chapter is to provide some regional flavour to the broader macroeconomic issues of this book. I start with the short-term outlook. The Russian economy has been growing quite fast since 2010. That is to say, it has been growing fast compared to Europe and fast compared to the United States, but it has been growing slowly compared to Russia’s peers among the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) (see Figure 8.1) and also low compared to what we had in the 2000s. The same 3 to 4 per cent growth is also the consensus forecast for 2012 and the next couple of years. If one compares this with what has been going on in Russia since the world financial crisis that hit Russia in 2008, it is actually not bad, but it is also not that great. Russia has experienced one of the worst consequences of the economic crisis. We had the largest drop in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, we have one of the highest unemployment spikes as a result of the crisis, yet the country is recovering, not as fast as Turkey, not as fast as Kazakhstan, but it is still doing much better than the Baltics.

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