A New Model for Balanced Growth and Convergence
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A New Model for Balanced Growth and Convergence

Achieving Economic Sustainability in CESEE Countries

Edited by Ewald Nowotny, Peter Mooslechner and Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald

This topical book addresses the need for emerging economies in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe to find a new, sustainable growth model that fosters continued convergence with the EU without leading to the build-up of new vulnerabilities.
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Chapter 10: Business cycle convergence or decoupling? Economic adjustment of CESEE countries during the crisis

Martin Gächter, Aleksandra Riedl and Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald

Extract

The financial crisis that turned into a sovereign debt crisis in 2010 has shifted both public and academic interest towards business cycle developments within the troubled euro area, while the previously fast-growing literature on business cycle convergence of Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European (CESEE) countries has been receiving less attention. Despite the prominence of the debt crisis within the euro area, it remains interesting to know which CESEE European Union (EU) member states experienced smooth economic adjustment (i.e. synchronous cycles) as opposed to countries which diverged considerably during the crisis. Recently, Kose et al. (2012) stressed that global emerging market economies decoupled somewhat from industrialized countries in terms of business cycle synchronization in the 1990s and 2000s, while business cycles within each of these two groups of countries converged over time.

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