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China’s Eurasian Dilemmas

Roads and Risks for a Sustainable Global Power

R. J. Ferguson

Providing a timely analysis of China’s engagement with Eurasia, R. James Ferguson focuses on the challenges obstructing China’s path to becoming a sustainable global power. Engagement across Eurasia presents China, its leaders and policymakers with intensified contact with regional and national conflicts, posing environmental, developmental and strategic dilemmas.
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Index

R. J. Ferguson

16+1 meetings 187

Afghanistan 68–78

AIIB, see Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

Arctic 55, 136, 204

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) 155, 170, 177, 222–6

asymmetry theory 94, 100

Bandung Spirit, see Shanghai Spirit

Bangladesh–China–India–Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIMEC), see Belt and Road Initiative

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) 3–4, 10, 17–18, 23–4, 32–4, 67–8, 72–3, 77–8, 95, 143–79, 209, 232, 235–6

Australian reaction 148–9

Bangladesh–China–India–Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIMEC) 150–51

Belt and Road International Forum 164, 178

China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) 151–2, 158

Connectivity 218

economic corridors 149–50

energy and resource access 159–60

European engagement 164, 176, 182–3, 201, 204

financing and funding 3–4, 143–4, 154–65, 214, 222, 224

as geopolitical project 146–55, 161–4, 177–8

as Grand Strategy 84–8, 155, 157, 191, 211

Indian reaction 149–53, 158, 164, 173

maritime cooperation 172–3

Middle East projects 159

Myanmar projects 158

Zealand engagement 149

risks of failure 215–22

security and sustainable development 152, 165–74, 236

Silk Road Spirit 169, see also Shanghai Spirit

Singaporean opportunities 168–9

Space Information Corridor 171, see also United States

Universities and knowledge base 169–73

BIMSTEC (Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) 102

Bingtuan (Production-Construction Military Corps) 13–14

borders and frontiers 12, 13, 39, 42, 127, 165

BREXIT 181

BRI, see Belt and Road Initiative

BRICS group 51, 101–2, 106, 219

Central and Eastern European (CEE) states and economies 205, see also 16+1 meetings

Central Asia 60–68

Central Asian Security Complex 47, see also wider Central Asia

China

dilemmas 20–22, 232–6

eco-civilization 21, 178

emerging Eurasian power 3–10

foreign and security policies 129–30, 137–8, 230, 232–3

Eurasian footprint xii–xiii, 1–26

Eurasian grand strategy 86–7

institutional learning and reform 222–6

‘look west’ policies 53, 235, see also Great Western Development Project

multitrack diplomacy 83, 214

new economic model 4, 20, 144

new great power relations 94, 96

partnerships 8

protests and discontent 216–17

sphere of influence 68

strategic partnerships 8, 130–32, 138–9

China–Afghanistan relations 35, 74–8

China–ASEAN 147, 172

China–Central Europe relations 200–201

blockages in relationship 186–9, 200

dialogues and agreements 191–7, 205–6

public perceptions 188–9

China–EU strategic partnership 192–5

China–Germany relations 198–204

China–Middle East relations 6–7

China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), see Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

China–Russia relations 7–10, 23, 43, 107, 125–41, 233–4

China – threat perceptions 134

China–United Kingdom relations 190

China–United States relations 96–7

China–Uzbekistan relations 67–8

China Dream 92, 143, 194

CICA, see Conference on Interaction and Confident Building Measures in Asia

CIS, see Commonwealth of Independent States

Climate Change 81, 184

Conference on Interaction and Confident Building Measures in Asia (CICA) 73

Collective Rapid Reaction Force (CRRF) 39, see also Collective Security Treaty Organization

Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) 27, 36–43

Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) 36–7, 47

complex interdependence 106, 174–5

Continental Economic Partnership 3–4, 162, 288–30

corruption 65

CSTO, see Collective Security Treaty Organization

CSTO–SCO cooperation 42–3, 52

cyber-security 188

Dniester Moldovan Republic, see Transnistria

Dugin, Alexander (Aleksandr) 102–3, 119

drug networks 80, 82, 165–6

EAEU, see Eurasian Economic Union

East Turkestan 13

East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) 15

Economic growth 219

EEU, see Eurasian Economic Union

energy networks and pipelines 16–17, 56, 75, 132, 159–60, 171

environmental risks 17, 65, 81, 166, 170–73, 179, 224

Eurasian Economic Union (EEU or EAEU) 101, 162, 228–9

Eurasian process 1, 5, 24–5, 58, 90–91

Eurasianism 99, 102–3, 118–19, 226–30, 235

European neighbourhood policies 184, 206–7

European Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) 207–8

France 182, 205

frontiers, see borders and frontiers

frozen and unfrozen conflicts 27–34

G2 (group of 2) 22, 62, 122, 211, 213

G2-plus system 231

G20101–2

Germany 182, 198–9, see also China–Germany relations

Grand Narratives 83–4, 141

Grand Strategies 84–5

Great Game 60

Great Power Management (GPM) 91, 100, 105, 107

Great Western Development Project 11–12, 16, 86, 160

greater Central Asia, see wider Central Asia

Greater Eurasia Partnership (GEP) 52, 98, 103, 116, 139, 141, 162–3, 226–7

Hegemony 92

Human rights 64–6, 186, 193

Hybrid Warfare 32

India, see also Belt and Road Initiative and Shanghai Cooperation Organization

Connect Central Asia strategy 74

India–Afghanistan relations 73–4

Indian Ocean 153, 168

India–Brazil–South Africa Forum (IBSA) 106

Information warfare 113, 229

Inter-regionalism 174–79

Islamic State (IS) 18–19, 79

Islamist movements 70–71, 80–81

Kaliningrad 28

Kazakhstan 139-40

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects 158

Kazakhstan–Afghanistan engagement 73

Kazakhstan–Uzbekistan relations 65–6

Korean peninsula 129, 131, 236

Kyrgyzstan

ethnic and political crises 40, 50

Levada Center 142

Lukin, Alexander 118

Malacca Straits dilemma 145

Medvedev, Dmitry 113–14

Merkel, Angela 202

military exercises 9, 41, 45, 50, 55, 63, 128–9, 140

Mirziyoyev, Shavkat 63

Moldova 30–34

Multilateralism 89, 91, 104–8

China’s shift towards, 92–7, 213

Multipolarity xiii, 44, 89–108, 123

NATO 26–7, 31, 37, 50, 69, 86, 140, 197

New Security Concept for Asia 35–6

New Silk Road (NSR) 25, 60, 74, 175, see also BRI

Non-Traditional Security (NTS) threats 61, 64, 79–83

One Belt, One Road, see Belt and Road Initiative

Order-building 231–37

Orthodox Christianity 81, 103

PLA (People’s Liberation Army) operations 167–8, 188, see also Shanghai Cooperation Organization – peace missions

plurilateral regional orders 215

polycentric order, see multipolarity and multilateralism

power diffusion 93, 208, 230

power transition 89–90, 95, 105–6, 208

PRC, see China

Primakov Doctrine, see Multipolarity

Private Security Companies (PSCs) 167–9

Production-Construction Military Corps, see Bingtuan

Putin, Vladimir 109–16, see also Putin–Xi relationship

Putinism 112–13, 115

Putin–Xi relationship 134–8

Regional Anti-Terrorism Structure (RATS) 46–7

Rossotrudnichestvo 117–18

Russia 85–6, 125–7

demographic trends 121

Far East sector 56–7

foreign and security policies 53–8, 98–104, 112–13, 116–25

military bases outside Russian Federation 38

military modernization 121–2, 129

multipolarity as preferred order 98–104, 116–17, 120, 125, 210, 236–7

multiplex order 237

power factors 120–24, 148

Russia–Afghanistan relations 70

Russian pivot to Asia 53–8

security services 124, see also Siberia

soft power 117–18, 148

think tanks 103

Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) 43–53, 141, 232–3

Indian membership 48, 52–3

New members 48–9

Peace Missions 45

SCO Charter 44

SCO Energy Club 49

Shanghai Spirit 44, 234–5

Think Tanks and Universities 45–6

Siberia 53–6, 126

Silk Road (ancient) 146–7, 180, see also Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

Silk Road Economic Belt, see Belt and Road Initiative

Sino-German relations, see China–Germany relations

Sino-Russian relations, see China–Russia relations

Sovereign Democracy 118

Special Economic Zones (SEZs) 163

String of Pearls 179, see also Belt and Road Initiatives and Indian Ocean

Sudan 168, 195–6

supra-regionalism, see inter-regionalism

Taiwan 187–8

Taliban 72–3, 76–7, 80

Tajikistan

Foreign bases 41

Russian and CSTO forces in country 38

Tajikistan–Afghanistan engagement 71–2

THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defence) system 129

Transnistria 29–33

Transport, railways and road links 18, 55, 66–7, 150, 158–9, 200, 205

Trump administration, see United States

Turkestan Islamic Party, see East Turkestan Islamic Movement

Turkey 48–9, 232–3

Turkmenistan 72–3

Turkmenistan–Afghanistan relations 72

Uighurs 11, 14–17, 75–6

United Kingdom 190, see also BREXIT

United States 63, 70, 74, 90, 120, 137, 182, 203, 210–11, 220, 229, 236–7

Ukraine 107, 110, 203, 206, see also frozen and unfrozen conflicts

Uzbekistan 46–7, 63–8

Uzbekistan–Afghanistan relations 66

Volodin, Vyacheslav 114

Wakhan Corridor 34–6

Wakhjir Pass 35

wider Central Asia 3, 11, 25, 60–62

Xi, Jinping 135–7, see also Putin–Xi relationship

Xinjiang 11–19