Deglobalization 2.0
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Deglobalization 2.0

Trade and Openness During the Great Depression and the Great Recession

Peter A.G. van Bergeijk

Deglobalization 2.0 argues that Trump and Brexit are the symptoms, and not the causes, of a long sequence of alternating phases of globalization and deglobalization driven by increasing income inequality and the retreat from the global stage by a contested hegemon. Providing rich empirical details, Peter van Bergeijk investigates similarities and differences between the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Great Recession and its aftermath of a slowdown in global trade. Providing an overview of recent findings and a discussion of contributions from several disciplines, the book investigates scenarios for the future of the economic world order and proposes possible solutions.
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Chapter 4: What Drives Deglobalization?

Peter A.G. van Bergeijk

Abstract

Discusses drivers of deglobalization: populism, income inequality, trade policy preferences and provides an empirical analysis of the covariates of the world trade collapse and the ensuing phase of deglobalization in the Great Depression and the Great Recession. The econometric analysis supports the mainstream analysis of the recent world trade collapse and also shows the relevance of this explanation for the 1930s: the demand shock and the composition effect are highly significant. The econometric analysis also shows that the political system is a highly relevant and significant co-determinant of the extent of deglobalization, but her an important difference exists between the 1930s and the 2000s. Currently deglobalization originates more in democracies whereas in the 1930s autocracies where the drivers of deglobalization.

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