The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages
Chapter 14: The Sequence and its Driving Forces
151 14. The Sequence and its Driving Forces The narrative in the preceding chapters went far into proposing a historical structure based on recurrence. It was approached from a systemic interdisciplinary point of view including technology and institutions, which can be roughly ranged within evolutionary economics. The type of model constructed is grounded on the idea that it is possible to find dynamic regularities and recurrent sequences of change in the workings of the capitalist system. This in itself already raises very fundamental issues, related to worldviews, that cannot be approached without revising some of the basic premises. It is not the intention of this book to enter such discussions. An in-depth treatment of those questions can be found in Freeman and Louçã’s As Time Goes By.230 The object of this concluding part is to summarize the model and to invite a debate about its implications. This chapter brings together the model in its main elements and discusses the driving forces involved. Chapter 15 explores some of the questions raised by this interpretation and looks into its consequences for theory and policy. A. A Summary of the Sequence and its Elements According to the model presented here, when a technological revolution irrupts in the scene, it does not just add some dynamic new industries to the previous production structure. Through the configuration of a techno-economic paradigm, it provides the means for modernizing all the existing industries and activities. The process of diffusion of both the revolution and its paradigm...
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