The Evolution of Path Dependence
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The Evolution of Path Dependence

Edited by Lars Magnusson and Jan Ottosson

The notion and interpretation of path dependence have been discussed and utilized in various social sciences during the last two decades. This innovative book provides significant new insights onto how the different applications of path dependence have developed and evolved. The authors suggest that there has been a definite evolution from applications of path dependence in the history of technology towards other fields of social science. They also discuss the various definitions of path dependence (strong or weak) and explore the potential applications of path dependence in new areas such as political economy and economic geography.
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Chapter 8: Can Path Dependence Explain Institutional Change? Two Approaches Applied to Welfare State Reform

Bernhard Ebbinghaus


1 Bernhard Ebbinghaus INTRODUCTION Over the past two decades, path dependence has become an increasingly popular concept in institutional theories in economics and other social sciences. Indeed, it has developed into a common ‘short hand’ to indicate that the past shapes the future – in short, history matters. However, upon closer analysis, we find two distinctly different interpretations of path dependence that I would like to summarize in two metaphors. One common image is the unplanned ‘trodden trail’ that emerges through the subsequent repeated use by others of a path spontaneously chosen by an individual. A different illustration is the ‘road juncture’, the branching point at which a person needs to choose one of the available pathways in order to continue the journey. The path-dependence concept thus subsumes two markedly different approaches to understand historical sequencing. The two images of the ‘trodden trail’ and the ‘road juncture’ represent different social processes that in my view must be distinguished analytically: a persistent diffusion path and branching pathways. The first model stresses the spontaneous evolution of an institution and its subsequent long-term entrenchment; the second view looks at the interdependent sequence of events that structure the alternatives for future institutional changes. Nevertheless, common to both approaches is the key idea that in a sequence of events, the latter decisions are not (entirely) independent from those that occurred in the past. In the language of probability theory, this sequential contingency is called path dependence. Path dependence results from non-linear self-reinforcing processes – in economic terms,...

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