Scientific Mobility in an Enlarging European Union
Chapter 2: Circulators, Returners and Settlers: Migration Trajectories and Patterns
2. Circulators, returners and settlers: migration trajectories and patterns INTRODUCTION This chapter is organized in two parts. The ﬁrst part proceeds with discussion about the scale of out-migration from Poland and Bulgaria; this in combination with discussion about the demographic challenges they face, helps to contextualize the analysis of the impact of such ﬂows for sending regions presented later. The second part of the chapter describes the patterns of mobility exhibited by our respondents in the MOBEX2 study. The object there is not to map the geography or volume of intra-EU scientiﬁc ﬂows as such but rather to identify the characteristics of mobility patterns. I ASSESSING THE VOLUME AND QUALITY OF SCIENTIFIC EMIGRATION FROM POLAND AND BULGARIA According to Kupiszewski (2002: 643), ‘forecasting international migration is the most diﬃcult task that demographers face’. Kupiszewski goes on to list the key problems frustrating accurate statistical analysis of ﬂows, including: lack of uniform deﬁnitions and the inability to distinguish longterm settlement from short-term migration and capture ‘pendulum migrations’. His overview of current data uncovered massive diﬀerences between migration ﬁgures sourced in the country of origin and host countries (which in some cases vary by a magnitude of 30-fold). Kupiszewski concludes that ‘neither the German nor the Polish migration data present reliable or realistic statistical information’ suggesting that estimates are often little better than a ‘statistical ﬁction’ (ibid.: 629). Other experts in the ﬁeld of highly skilled migration come to similar conclusions. Kicinger (2005: 33), for example, refers to...
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