Chapter 9: Randall Hinshaw Memorial Lecture: choosing exchange rate regimes. Lessons from Europe and Asia
9. Randall Hinshaw Memorial Lecture: choosing exchange rate regimes. Lessons from Europe and Asia Presented by W. Max Corden INTRODUCTION It is an honor to give the Second Randall Hinshaw Memorial Lecture on the occasion of the fifteenth Bologna–Claremont Monetary Conference. Randall was the devoted organizer, fundraiser and, above all, editor for this series since its beginning in 1967. It is with great regret for all of us that he is no longer with us. But this notable conference series and the books that it spawned will always be his memorial. What kinds of exchange rate regimes can be recommended to socalled emerging market countries – that is, developing and transition countries with open or fairly open capital markets? What are the lessons of recent events? This is currently a hot topic, and just now the academic debate centers on the “hollowing out” proposition: that the choice is inevitably between the two extremes – currency boards or monetary union on the one hand, and ﬂoating exchange rates with only modest smoothing intervention on the other. That is a pretty stark choice. In this view, anything in between, notably ﬁxed or adjustable regimes, are discredited, at least for emerging market countries. I want to discuss this with special reference to East Asian countries. What lessons can be derived from their experiences and what suggestions can be made for them? Thus it is Asia rather than Latin America or the transition economies on which I shall focus. Furthermore, I shall not be concerned...
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