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Spatial Dynamics, Networks and Modelling

Edited by Aura Reggiani and Peter Nijkamp

This important new book provides a valuable set of studies on spatial dynamics, emerging networks and modelling efforts. It employs interdisciplinary concepts alongside innovative trajectories to highlight recent advances in analysing and modelling the spatial economy, transport networks, industrial dynamics and regional systems. It is argued that modelling network processes at different spatial scales provides critical information for the design of plans and policies. Furthermore, a key issue in the current complex and heterogeneous landscape is the adoption and validation of new approaches, models and methodologies, which are able to grasp the emergent aspects of economic uncertainty and discontinuity, as well as overcome the current difficulties of carrying out appropriate forecasts. In exploring diverse pathways for theoretical, methodological and empirical analysis, this exciting volume offers promising and evolutionary perspectives on the modern spatial network society.
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Chapter 12: Evolution of Regional Employment in Germany: Forecasts 2001 to 2010

Franz-Josef Bade


12. Evolution of Regional Employment in Germany: A Forecast 2001 to 2010 Franz-Josef Bade 12.1 INTRODUCTION Theoretically, regional policy like other areas of politics should principally be based on explicit estimations of the future perspectives of regions. Actually, in Germany, as in many other countries, it is just the opposite. One of the few exceptions is the coordination of regional policy by the ‘Gemeinschaftsaufgabe “Verbesserung der regionalen Wirtschaftsstruktur”’. This institution is a joint committee of the federal state and the 16 states (Länder) and has the task of coordinating the rules of regional assistance in order to avoid an unfair competition between rich and poor states and to prevent collusive behaviour of firms applying for regional subsidies. Among other things, this coordination is achieved through the definition of those areas where subsidies for firms are possible. The selection of the assisted areas is based on a few indicators, one of which is a forecast of regional employment change. In this chapter, we report how these forecasts are made, what their main results are, and last, but not least, how reliable the results have been in the past. Since the current forecast 2001–10 is the most recent of a series of forecasts,1 it offers not only the possibility of ex post control but, perhaps more importantly, it also allows us to learn from the errors made in the previous estimations. In the following, we first give a short outline of the forecast methodology. As the approach consists...

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