Edited by Gabriel Fagan and Julian Morgan
Chapter 12: The Bank of Italy's quarterly model
12. The Bank of Italy’s quarterly model Fabio Busetti, Alberto Locarno and Libero Monteforte 1 INTRODUCTION AND HISTORY The Bank of Italy quarterly model (BIQM) is a new version of the model developed in the mid-1980s by a team of economists of the Research Department supervised by Albert Ando (Banca d’Italia, 1986). The architecture of this model had its foundations in previous modelling experience at the Bank, in particular M1BI (Banca d’Italia, 1970) and M2BI (Fazio and Sitzia, 1979) developed under the supervision of Franco Modigliani, but it also represented a major improvement in many respects. It integrated new time series results on cointegration and error correction speciﬁcation; it reconstructed in detail the ﬂow of funds of the economy; it beneﬁted from the experience of the large-scale macroeconometric models of the 1980s, particularly the MPS of the US economy (Brayton and Mauskopf, 1985); it incorporated speciﬁc institutional mechanisms of the Italian economy. For example, the model’s Phillips curve was adapted to the changes in the bargaining framework agreed upon by the social partners in July 1993, in particular the dismissal of automatic indexation and the substitute mechanism for recovering price increases in excess of the inﬂation target. Since the presentation of the ﬁrst release, the BIQM has continuously evolved to take account of new data sources, changed institutional frameworks and a variety of expectations formation mechanisms and policy rules. More recently the model has been adapted to the ESA-95 standard of national accounts and to the...
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