Impacts and Responses
Edited by Matthias Ruth, Kieran Donaghy and Paul Kirshen
Chapter 6: Assessing Potential Public Health Implications of Changing Climate and Land Uses: The New York Climate and Health Project
6 Assessing Potential Public Health Impacts of Changing Climate and Land Uses: The New York Climate and Health Project P. Kinney, J. Rosenthal, C. Rosenzweig, C. Hogrefe, W. Solecki, K. Knowlton, C. Small, B. Lynn, K. Civerolo, J. Ku, R. Goldberg and C. Oliveri INTRODUCTION Over the next 50 years, a rapidly urbanizing world population will confront significant environmental change caused by a warming climate and rapid conversion of land. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment projects that the globally averaged surface temperature will increase by 1.4–5.8ºC (2.4–10.4ºF) by 2100 (IPCC 2001).1 Simultaneously, human populations are carrying out a rapid and substantial conversion of land from natural to human dominated uses. To be responsible stewards of both human health and biological diversity in the coming century, societies will need to develop and institutionalize better models describing and predicting the interactions between these global drivers and the health of the planet. The objective of the project described here is to begin to build and apply a modeling framework that assesses potential future public health impacts of both climate change and land use change in the New York metropolitan region. There are many challenges to overcome in addressing this objective. One is the need to bring together and integrate a diverse set of models and observations, including those addressing changes in global climate (General Circulation Models or GCMs), land use, regional climate, air quality and human health. Another important technical challenge is the need...
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