Edited by Harry W Richardson, Peter Gordon and James E. Moore II
Chapter 11: Simulating the State-by-State Effects of Terrorist Attacks on Three Major US Ports: Applying NIEMO (National Interstate Economic Model)
11. Simulating the state-by-state eﬀects of terrorist attacks on three major US ports: applying NIEMO (National Interstate Economic Model) Jiyoung Park, Peter Gordon, James E. Moore II, Harry W. Richardson and Lanlan Wang The Department of Homeland Security recently issued Planning Scenarios (Howe, 2004) that included preliminary estimates of the losses from various hypothetical terrorist attacks on selected major targets. There are three problems with many of these estimates: ● ● ● The orders of magnitude are often much too vague to be useful, for example, ‘millions of dollars’, ‘up to billions of dollars’. The range and types of targets are too limited: many more than a dozen or so scenarios pose a serious economic risk. The geographical incidence of losses is not made clear, probably on purpose because of a policy decision not to identify speciﬁc target sites. ‘All politics are local’ may be a slight exaggeration, but decision-makers have a keen interest in the spatial incidence of possible losses. Our research addresses all three of these problems. We have created what we believe to be the ﬁrst operational interstate input–output (IO) model for the United States. The National Interstate Economic Model (NIEMO) provides results for 47 major industrial sectors for all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and a leakage region: ‘The Rest of the World’. In the application reported here, we use NIEMO to estimate industry-level impacts from the short-term loss of the services of three major US seaports – Los Angeles/Long Beach, New York/Newark and Houston – on...
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