Shaping Climate Change Policy
- ESRI Studies Series on the Environment
Lisa Ryan and Hal Turton
A SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO TO EXPLORE FUTURE TRANSPORT Greenhouse gas emissions from transport are growing rapidly, and this sector is accounting for an ever-increasing share of total anthropogenic emissions, driven mainly by increasing incomes. The key question arises as to whether future transport activity, propelled by continued economic growth, will necessarily undermine the achievement of environmental sustainability, or whether technological and structural changes will enable the transport sector to develop in ways that are compatible with the principles of sustainable development, without necessarily restricting mobility. Although restricting access to particular modes of transport could achieve some aspects of environmental sustainability, it may undermine other aspects of development, including economic activity, social development and human welfare. It is the purpose of the following chapters to investigate the role of transport, particularly the role of the private automobile and personal mobility, in sustainable development. To explore these issues we start by describing a scenario of future demographic, economic and energy-intensity trends that will later be used to investigate global transport in more detail. As discussed, scenarios can help to enhance our understanding of highly complex systems, such as the future development of the global energy and transport system. In this study, we seek to use scenario analysis to better understand the technology transitions, and the potential role for policy support, required to realize a more sustainable transport system. Importantly, for this exercise it is not necessary to develop all elements of a scenario from scratch since many scenarios are available already, such...
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