Shaping Climate Change Policy
- ESRI Studies Series on the Environment
Lisa Ryan and Hal Turton
6. Alternative scenarios of a future transport system Adopting new technologies and mobilizing alternative resources has the potential to facilitate the development of a sustainable energy system. Chapter 5 examined and demonstrated the potential of new technologies and fuels to deliver a sustainable transport system, along with a low-emissions global energy system. However, this was only an assessment of technical potential, rather than commercial potential. In this current chapter we examine whether current market drivers alone are suﬃcient to achieve such a sustainable energy system and, where they fall short, identify possible key targets for policy support to promote sustainable development in the transport sector. 6.1 ENERGY AND TRANSPORT SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT IN THE ABSENCE OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES We present here another scenario of the transport sector, again based on the economic, social and transport demand developments described in Chapter 2. The main point of divergence, however, is that we assume that some aspects of sustainability – in particular greenhouse gas emission abatement and strategic management of resource depletion – are not pursued. This assumption means that many key current policy drivers of energy system development are excluded, including current (and future) climate change mitigation policies, eﬀorts to promote energy security and some aspects of technology development (such as R&D). Accordingly, it is not appropriate to refer to this as a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, and it is more correctly described as a ‘no-policy’ scenario. This scenario helps us to understand the type of energy and transport system that may emerge...
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