Transitions to a Sustainable Future
Edited by Valentina Bosetti, Reyer Gerlagh and Stefan P. Schleicher
Modelling Sustainable Development 05/05/2009 18.27 Chap. 10 p. 157 10. A Hybrid Model: DEMETER Reyer Gerlagh and Bob van der Zwaan This chapter describes the main features of the long-term dynamic top-down economy–energy–environment (EEE) model DEMETER,1 which has been used for the analysis of a number of climate change issues (see Gerlagh and van der Zwaan, 2003, 2004; Gerlagh et al., 2004; van der Zwaan et al., 2002; van der Zwaan and Gerlagh, 2006). The DEMETER version described here simulates fossil fuels and non-fossil energy, as well as a decarbonization option through carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS), in addition to a simple climate module and generic production and consumption behaviour. DEMETER connects to both models of endogenous growth (such as Bovenberg and Smulders, 1996; Chakravorty et al., 1997) and to (top-down) models particularly focusing on energy and climate change (for example Buonanno et al., 2003; Goulder and Mathai, 2000). While DEMETER fits into the tradition of models like DICE (Nordhaus, 1994, 2002), it is clearly much richer in technological detail than Nordhaus’s pioneering top-down model. It shares the endogenization of technical change through learning curves with bottomup models as developed by Messner (1997) and reported in Nakićenović et al. (2000). In this sense, DEMETER is hybrid and especially useful for deriving insight for policy-making (Jaccard et al., 2003). Below, after a short introduction, brief descriptions are given of how DEMETER models the representative consumer, the final good producer, energy producers, technological change, climate change, and...
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