Scenarios and Policy Implications
Edited by Anil Markandya, Andrea Bigano and Roberto Porchia
Chapter 8: Electricity Scenarios in EU Countries
Houda Allal, Ole Løfsnes, Thomas Niesor, Berit Tennbakk and Matteo Urbani This chapter is divided into two parts. First, the commonly used models for the EU power sector are described and compared. Second, the ECON model’s assumptions and results are explained in detail. 8.1 EXISTING MODELS FOR EU COUNTRIES Energy models produce forecasts for the future global energy situation, especially in terms of energy demand, energy mix and security of supply. A range of organisations issue regular projections that serve a variety of political and economic purposes, and with different emphases and methodologies. This variety means that the forecasts are often difficult to compare. On the basis of selected parameters, the first part of this chapter compares the points of view of three well-established models regarding electricity sector scenarios for the EU251 (that is the current EU27, excluding Romania and Bulgaria). Models Descriptions PRIMES is a modelling system for energy supply and demand in the EU Member States up to 2030. The results of PRIMES are published in the European Energy and Transport Trends to 2030 (European Commission, 2005). Updated scenarios are expected to be released shortly. The EC DG-Research published the World Energy, Technology and Climate Policy Outlook (WETO) in 2003. The WETO presents results from the POLES model which is a world partial equilibrium simulation model for the energy sector, with endogenous international energy prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA) model uses its ‘World Energy Outlook’ to carry out long-term energy projections up to 2030. There is...
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