Past, Present and Future
In this chapter we describe some of the major developments in urban travel forecasting practice in the UK over the past 30 years, with particular emphasis on recent times. This review examines the refinement of traditional methods as well as significant innovations. The coverage is wide-ranging, but as in Chapter 8 it is necessarily selective. We intend to give a flavour of developments in a country with, according to Shepherd et al (2006b, 313), ‘a strong culture of transport modelling’, albeit one exhibiting wide variations in practice. We do not intend to offer a detailed history, description or critique of modelling practice – tasks undertaken by others (as we discuss below in this section) – but to introduce significant developments and the motivation for them.
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