Forecasting Urban Travel
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Forecasting Urban Travel

Past, Present and Future

David E. Boyce and Huw C.W.L. Williams

Forecasting Urban Travel presents in a non-mathematical way the evolution of methods, models and theories underpinning travel forecasts and policy analysis, from the early urban transportation studies of the 1950s to current applications throughout the urbanized world. From original documents, correspondence and interviews, especially from the United States and the United Kingdom, the authors seek to capture the spirit and problems faced in different eras, as changing information requirements, computing technology and planning objectives conditioned the nature of forecasts.
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Chapter 11: Achievements, current challenges and future prospects

David E. Boyce and Huw C.W.L. Williams


Our survey of historical developments in urban travel forecasting is almost complete. The journey, which began in the US in the 1950s, has covered much ground. The theory, methods and practice of travel forecasting evolved into a worldwide phenomenon, and were adapted and developed to meet local needs to varying degrees. In this chapter we offer our personal and inevitably selective views on the nature of progress in the field over the last six decades, outline what we see as current challenges, and identify some unanswered questions and possible areas of investigation. We hope to stimulate or rekindle debate about research priorities in this field.

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