Edited by Ariel Dinar and Robert Mendelsohn
Chapter 4: From the Farmer to Global Food Production: Use of Crop Models for Climate Change Impact Assessment
Ana Iglesias, Jeremy Schlickenrieder, David Pereira and Agustín Diz INTRODUCTION Although there is growing consensus over the reality of climate change (IPPC, 2007), accurately predicting climate change impacts remains a daunting task. Climate change impacts on crop production are particularly hard to predict and assess (Hansen et al. 2006; Lobell and Ortiz-Monasterio, 2006; Iglesias et al., 2011; Mendelsohn and Dinar, 1999; Tubiello and Ewert, 2002; Challinor et al., 2009). In part this is because the data and modelling tools tend to be more robust at the local level (Hansen and Jones, 2000) than at the regional level. The resulting range of predicted impacts on crop production is extensive, not least because of the inherent difficulties associated with projecting and evaluating the numerous sources of uncertainty present in any study of climate change impacts. Several hundred studies have approached the estimation of climate change impacts on agricultural and food production from different points and have included physiological considerations (Tubiello and Ewert, 2002; Long et al., 2006), productivity and management considerations (Olesen and Bindi, 2002; Porter and Semenov, 2005; Iglesias et al., 2007; Easterling et al., 2003; Reidsma et al., 2007), estimations of the effects of pests and diseases (Rosenzweig et al., 2006) and interactions with water (Alcamo et al., 2007; Iglesias et al., 2011). All of these studies, both named and not named, have contributed to our understanding of how different analytical tools may be used for impact assessment, their strengths and limitations, and the sources of uncertainty that derive...
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