Predicting the Future in Science, Economics, and Politics
Show Less

Predicting the Future in Science, Economics, and Politics

Edited by Frank Whelon Wayman, Paul R. Williamson, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Solomon Polachek

It is a puzzle that while academic research has increased in specialization, the important and complex problems facing humans urgently require a synthesis of understanding. This unique collaboration attempts to address such a problem by bringing together a host of prominent scholars from across the sciences to offer new insights into predicting the future. They demonstrate that long-term trends and short-term incentives need to be understood in order to adopt effective policies, or even to comprehend where we currently stand and the sort of future that awaits us.
Buy Book in Print
Show Summary Details
You do not have access to this content

Chapter 2: Organizing diverse contributions to global forecasting

Paul R. Williamson


The elements that may contribute to computational global societal– environmental modeling and forecasting – herein simply “modeling’’ or “global modeling” where clarity permits – take the form of contributions from greatly diverse sources. Some of these (somewhat skewed in the direction of social inquiries) are speculatively indicated by the categories in Table 2.1. This chapter offers a set of themes, set forth below, for connecting such elements. This particular set of ideas is not meant to be unique; there may be, no doubt are, other ways of doing the connecting; nor will the present discussion do more than briefly treat the themes to be considered. The organizing principle that I propose is that the various elements may be described and compared in terms of the themes. This suggested organization is, thus, a very loose one. It is not a substitute for the ideal of a consistent, coherent, validated, maximally compacted organization of elements, but my suggestion is that the indicated comparative descriptions may help move global modeling in the direction of that ideal. The rationale for these particular themes is that to do successful global modeling one needs to look, anew, at modern physical science as both exemplar and basis of global knowledge.

You are not authenticated to view the full text of this chapter or article.

Elgaronline requires a subscription or purchase to access the full text of books or journals. Please login through your library system or with your personal username and password on the homepage.

Non-subscribers can freely search the site, view abstracts/ extracts and download selected front matter and introductory chapters for personal use.

Your library may not have purchased all subject areas. If you are authenticated and think you should have access to this title, please contact your librarian.

Further information

or login to access all content.