The Economics of Competitive Sports
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The Economics of Competitive Sports

Edited by Plácido Rodríguez, Stefan Késenne and Ruud Koning

The essence of any sports contest is competition. The very unpredictability of a sporting outcome distinguishes it from, say, an opera performance. This volume presents a state of the art overview of the economics of competitive sport along two main themes. In the first part, the discussion centers on the organization of sports and competition. The second part deals with the competitive balance, rewards and outcomes of the actual contests.
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Chapter 11: Economic prediction of sport performances from the Beijing Olympics to the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa: the notion of surprising sporting outcomes

Wladimir Andreff and Madeleine Andreff


A model used for successfully predicting Beijing Olympics’ medal wins is adapted to check whether economic variables could be good predictors of soccer World Cup outcomes. Some ‘footballistic’ variables must be added with regard to predicting the outcome of a single sport discipline contest. The model does not perform as well with the soccer World Cup as with the Olympics. This is owing to surprising sporting outcomes, a notion not previously analysed. The chapter elaborates on such notion and suggests a simple metrics, then concludes that economic predictions of sporting performances must be treated with caution.

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