National Economic Impact Analysis of Terrorist Attacks and Natural Disasters
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National Economic Impact Analysis of Terrorist Attacks and Natural Disasters

Edited by Harry W. Richardson, Jiyoung Park, James E. Moore II and Qisheng Pan

This book develops a national economic impact model to estimate the effects of simulated terrorist attacks and natural disasters on individual US States and economic sectors. The model, called NIEMO (The National Interstate Economic Model) looks at interindustry relationships and interregional trade. It is highly disaggregated making the model very accurate. The authors examine potential attack targets including theme parks, sporting events, bridges and tunnels in the national highway system as well as attempts to shoot down airplanes or spread foot-and-mouth disease. Covered natural disasters are almost all real world: Hurricane Katrina, the Joplin Tornado, the Gulf Oil Spill and Hurricane Sandy. The effects on State economies caused by the closing international borders in response to a global pandemic is also examined.
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Chapter 14: Extension of the Panama Canal

JiYoung Park, ChangKeun Park and Harry W. Richardson


The simplest way to approach the difficult problem of estimating the economic effects of the Panama Canal expansion is via the use of input-output models. The National Interstate Economic Model (NIEMO) is useful because it models all interstate trade among the US states. In addition, NIEMO has a demand-side as well as a supply-side impact estimation capability. Larger ships traversing the canal will prompt a redirection of some seaborne trade among US (and other) ports that will involve secondary effects in terms of the use of the other freight modes. This chapter provides first-cut estimates by describing how available data can be used to estimate the effects of one of these dimensions, reduced seaborne imports to the West Coast Customs Districts (WCCD: Los Angeles Customs District, San Francisco Customs District, Columbia-Snake Customs District and Seattle Customs District). Reduced port activities into California, Oregon and Washington have negative effects on transportation and warehousing industries in the states that receive foreign imports; however, there are simultaneous positive effects in the various states from increased imports into the other port states because of the modal shift.

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