National Economic Impact Analysis of Terrorist Attacks and Natural Disasters
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National Economic Impact Analysis of Terrorist Attacks and Natural Disasters

Edited by Harry W. Richardson, Jiyoung Park, James E. Moore II and Qisheng Pan

This book develops a national economic impact model to estimate the effects of simulated terrorist attacks and natural disasters on individual US States and economic sectors. The model, called NIEMO (The National Interstate Economic Model) looks at interindustry relationships and interregional trade. It is highly disaggregated making the model very accurate. The authors examine potential attack targets including theme parks, sporting events, bridges and tunnels in the national highway system as well as attempts to shoot down airplanes or spread foot-and-mouth disease. Covered natural disasters are almost all real world: Hurricane Katrina, the Joplin Tornado, the Gulf Oil Spill and Hurricane Sandy. The effects on State economies caused by the closing international borders in response to a global pandemic is also examined.
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Chapter 15: Conclusions

Harry W. Richardson and JiYoung Park


The primary purpose of this book has been to develop a version of a multiregional input-output (MRIO) model for the US economy as a whole. The model has a moderate degree of sectoral aggregation (47 sectors aggregated from more than 500). The key focus has been on spatial disaggregation with each of the 50 states featured plus Washington, DC and the ‘Rest of the world’. The model (National Interstate Economic Model–NIEMO) was built quite recently, beginning about nine years ago. The extensive geographical disaggregation permitted us to develop a highway network for the model that made it possible to investigate transportation issues. We placed the conceptual and methodological components of the model in Chapter 2. This permits regional scientists and economists to evaluate how the model was built, and to spare the practicing planners (if they so desire) from having to deal with complex model details, enabling them to focus on the applications of the model and their policy implications. An interesting feature of the model is that it did not require primary data collection, except from the perspective of estimating direct (final demand) inputs for each case study application. However, the model required complex construction of connections and bridges between multiple and different data sets. However, once developed, the model is very adaptable to a wide range of applications, in this book primarily in terms of terrorist attacks and natural disasters.

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