The Economics of Sports Betting
Edited by Plácido Rodríguez, Brad R. Humphreys and Robert Simmons
Chapter 5: Forecasting football match results: are the many smarter than the few?*
Jaume García, Levi Pérez and Plácido Rodríguez
Abstract
In this chapter the authors pose the fundamental question of whether bookmaker probabilities offer superior predictions of match outcomes to bettors themselves. Their test case is Spanish football and the comparison gamblers are football pools bettors who play a game where they forecast match outcomes. The authors find, first, that there is a favourite-longshot bias in Spanish fixed-odds football results betting and second, bookmakers’ predictions outperform those of football pools bettors.
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