Edited by Flemming Sørensen and Francesco Lapenta
Chapter 9: Using technology-oriented scenario analysis for innovation research
This chapter describes how methods and theories developing within the field of future-oriented technology analysis can be implemented in technology- dependent innovation and research practices. It focuses on and defines one such method – technology-oriented scenario analysis, and departs from the premise that technology and information technologies have become structural drivers of change, and the awareness that any medium- or long-term innovation plan cannot exclude reflections about probable and possible future technological developments. The chapter presents combined theoretical and methodological models that explain the theoretical premises of contemporary methods based on future foresight and future forecast (ranging from traditional expert knowledge and speculative foresight to contemporary “algorithmic predictive computing” and artificial intelligence-based analysis of big data). It argues that technology forecast and foresight methods should be understood as new, necessary, and dynamic processes of organizational intelligence, designed to activate key and dependent actors to participate in a constant innovation process inspired by, and aware of, these possible future technological scenarios. The chapter details the steps involved in technology-oriented scenario analysis, and describes how this method can be implemented and used by businesses or other institutional entities to prepare, or contribute towards shaping, these possible future scenarios.
You are not authenticated to view the full text of this chapter or article.
Elgaronline requires a subscription or purchase to access the full text of books or journals. Please login through your library system or with your personal username and password on the homepage.
Non-subscribers can freely search the site, view abstracts/ extracts and download selected front matter and introductory chapters for personal use.
Your library may not have purchased all subject areas. If you are authenticated and think you should have access to this title, please contact your librarian.