The Social Value of New Technology
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The Social Value of New Technology

Edited by Albert N. Link and John T. Scott

New technologies, with their practical contributions, provide social value. The chapters in this volume view this social value from a program evaluation perspective, and the focus of the evaluations is the generation of new technology funded by public sector agencies. The authors provide important background on methodology and application and show that it is relevant not only to the established scholars and practitioners, but also to students.
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Chapter 11: INTELLIGENT MACHINE TECHNOLOGY AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH

David P. Leech and John T. Scott

Abstract

This paper provides preliminary estimates of the productivity impact of intelligent machine technology (IMT) and the rate of return to IMT research and development (R & D) over the next two decades. The paper adapts economists’ traditional productivity growth model to enable the use of industrial experts’ forecasts of a few key parameters of the model to form the estimates of productivity growth and rate of return. Respondents – from a sample of firms operating in IMT development and applications in the automotive, aerospace, and capital construction industries – anticipate that IMT will generate substantial productivity growth over the next two decades, and the estimated social rates of return to IMT R & D are substantial.

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