Edited by Gordon Wilmsmeier and Jason Monios
Chapter 3: GDP and international seaborne trade: past trends, present breaks and future directions
In the second decade of this century, the traditional link between world economic growth and international trade seemed to be drastically challenged, as international and industry bodies pointed out. This chapter queries the recent demand environment for aspects which could signal a long-term challenge to the “growth-to-trade” conversion rate. The authors first review the impressive, yet temporary as it proved, 21st-century developments between gross domestic product (GDP), trade and shipping demand growth before the 2008 financial crisis; they then analyse emerging trends which could have impacted on the growth-to-trade conversion over the period that followed. To test the significance of such underlying factors, the authors model seaborne trade on variables reflecting changes in economic growth and in the material content of production. Conclusions summarize the impact of the dematerialization of world economic growth on shipping demand prospects as shown by the statistical significance of changes in the share of services in global GDP.
You are not authenticated to view the full text of this chapter or article.
Elgaronline requires a subscription or purchase to access the full text of books or journals. Please login through your library system or with your personal username and password on the homepage.
Non-subscribers can freely search the site, view abstracts/ extracts and download selected front matter and introductory chapters for personal use.
Your library may not have purchased all subject areas. If you are authenticated and think you should have access to this title, please contact your librarian.